Friday, March 9, 2012

Xinyuan Real Estate Suzhou Sales Strong?

The information from SouFun keeps pouring in.  The latest is an article which seems to be discussing XIN's sales at the Suzhou International City Garden project in 2012.  Again, we are relying on Google Translate to understand the Chinese, and our understanding of what the article is saying may be completely off, so take this discussion with that in mind. 

Nevertheless, here is what we gathered from the article.  Thus far in 2012 Xinyuan Real Estate appears to have sold 110 units at this project, in sizes ranging from 65-101 square meters.  On one day alone they sold more than 60 units, which was a record for single day sales.

In Q4 the company sold 10,100 square meters at Suzhou International City Garden, for approximately US$18m in revenue, whereas in Q3 2011 the company sold 20,600 square meters at the project for approximately US$38m in revenue.  So it seems there is approximately US$1.8m in contract sales for every 1,000 square meters of units sold at this project. 

So what does that mean for Q1 2012?  If we assume an average unit size of 83 square meters, and multiply that by 110 units, we get 9,130 in square meters sold so far in Q1 2012.  This would correspond to approximately US$16m in contract sales already in Q1 2012 for Suzhou.   This would be on pace to beat their results from Q4 2012, which would be a very strong showing from this project in a traditionally weak quarter.

Again, extreme caution must be used in deriving anything from this SouFun article at this point.  It is entirely possible that we misunderstand some crucial aspect of what the article is saying and that our contract sales projection is entirely off.  But if it's not, it suggests sales in Suzhou are strong so far for the first quarter.

Disclosure: Long $XIN

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